“How much will this condo be worth in a few years?”
Is there a more important question for an investor? It’s a question without a specific answer, though. Nobody can predict the future, of course. However, we can glean insight from what history tells us. The information we uncovered is pretty interesting.
Below is an analysis I prepared on the moving average of a 5 year hold of a downtown condo. We can look at the annual median sales price per foot of every recorded condo sale since 1997*. This is a broad market analysis including every downtown condo tower.
When we do this, we observe the moving average for trailing five years of appreciation at its lowest was 14.75%.
In 2014, specifically, the typical downtown condo owner would have seen appreciation of 63.62% over the previous five years.
*NOTES to analysis:
1) Reflects ALL transaction records for condos in MLS Area “DT” since 1997.
2) some early records did not have correct square footage, so the data is normalized by constraining the data set to condos with a square footage range of 100-12,000sf.