Mark Dotzour, the director of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, has announced that the Texas real estate market has likely reached bottom.
According to Dotzour: “I feel now is the time to buy a house in most Texas cities. Housing affordability has never been higher, and I never thought I would see 5 percent mortgages in my lifetime. If you plan to live in the house for at least two or three years, now is the time to buy.”
The Texas A&M real estate center is predicting that 2009 will look a lot like 2003 in terms of volumes, listings, and inventory. Prices, however, are definitively higher with the 2009 estimated average price 20% higher than the price in 2003 and lower only than the prices of the last two years. The median price remains at an all time high.
Texas A&M Austin MLS Tracking with 2009 Estimates
|
Date |
Sales |
Dollar Volume |
Avg. Price |
Median Price |
Listings |
Months Inventory |
| 2003 |
19,793 |
3,899,018,519 |
197,000 |
154,800 |
10,340 |
6.6 |
| 2004 |
22,567 |
4,487,464,528 |
198,900 |
154,100 |
10,394 |
5.9 |
| 2005 |
26,905 |
5,660,934,916 |
210,400 |
161,300 |
8,965 |
4.3 |
| 2006 |
30,284 |
6,961,725,607 |
229,900 |
172,200 |
8,695 |
3.6 |
| 2007 |
28,048 |
6,910,962,480 |
246,400 |
184,200 |
9,833 |
4 |
| 2008 |
22,439 |
5,470,241,896 |
243,800 |
188,200 |
11,585 |
5.5 |
| 2009 e |
20,043 |
4,746,392,079 |
236,800 |
188,000 |
11,244 |
6.6 |
It’s hard to know how Dotzour’s prediction applies to the downtown Austin condo market. The downtown Austin market is less established than other markets and currently faces a surplus of newly constructed and planned units. This surplus, however, is driving unprecedented discounting. For buyers, it is a balancing trick: for how long will prices continue to go down and at what point will interest rates go up?
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